Friday, 16 January 2015

A theory on why Arsenal never buy the requisite amount of players


It's pretty apparent Arsene hadn't a plan coming into January 1st.

If he would, there would have been finalized targets and deals in progress, nearing completion. True, transfers can only happen during the summer or in January, but negotiations and enquiries can happen any day of the year. Deals can be concluded behind the scenes and the formality of the paperwork and signing of the checkbooks and contracts can happen once the FA permits i.e. the transfer window.

I may be a tad wrong on the specifics here, but I'm certain I'm accurate in suggesting that there can be a certain element of proactiveness before the window actually opens. There are so many deals like the Daniel Sturridge or the Demba Ba ones which were concluded pretty early in the transfer window because the hard work was done before the window opened. Even the Lukas Podolski loan deal happened pretty early.

Now, I know that there have to be two consenting parties to finalize negotiations behind the scenes, but there can still exist a measure of prearrangement from the approaching party, such as scouting the target, estimating a price and setting aside the money on hand.

Not at Arsenal. Note that before the transfer window started, Arsene Wenger quite clearly stated his intention to buy whenever it was convenient to, and not from the word go.

"There is a need but the right opportunity has to come up. To buy [just] to buy is not what we want to do, but if the right opportunity comes up, we will do it."

In no way at all does that signify a desire to strengthen out of ambition. Essentially, what the manager is saying that he won't buy a Pepsi unless a truck full of it stops in front of him and offers him a special discount. Not only does that happen rarely in the January transfer window, but it also means that if it indeed doesn't, Wenger is ready to shank another season to keep the "long-term" plan in mind.

At this point, I have to ask, what is the "long-term" plan? Every January without exception the fans are hopeful Wenger will plug the gaps to propel a decent cup run or win the title. Every time the transfer window ends, the same fans are quite understandably frustrated but lie themselves into believing that the manager will make amends in the summer, when players and clubs are more open to a move.

The result?

January 2014 expectations: Centre back, defensive midfielder, striker
Reality: Injured defensive midfielder
End of summer transfer window, 2014: Lack of depth in centre half or defensive midfield

January 2013 expectations: Centre back, striker
Reality: Panic-purchase left back
End of summer transfer window, 2013: Lack of depth in centre half, striker

January 2012 expectations: Attacking midfielder, backup striker
Reality: Thomas Eisfeld
End of summer transfer window, 2012: Lack of defensive midfielder, striker

It's fairly obvious that Arsene Wenger has, religiously, failed to plug the gaps in the summer. Fans consoling and deluding themselves only serves to continue this vicious cycle.

The question lies as to why does Wenger not buy the required quantity/quality of players. Some may say that he is incapable. I disagree. From what I know about Wenger, I think that he can sign a player if he has his heart set out on him. He's bought a lot of good players last season and convinced a not-for-sale Mesut Ozil to jump ship from Real Madrid too.

Notice the "if he has his heart set out on him" clause, though. Personally, I don't think Wenger is really interested in this transfer window. There's no Schneiderlin, Hummels or Winston Reid deal happening behind the scenes. Even if it were, it would be a reactive measure to injuries than a planned assessment of "Is this player just right for Arsenal"?

"We are more (in the market now). We work really hard morning until late night to try to get one or two players in."

Even with long-term injuries to Debuchy and Arteta, I don't expect anything more than Bielik and a defender (loaned, probably) as our January showings. Recent past and the manager's general stubbornness gives that theory weight.

Which brings us back to the question - why does Wenger not buy the necessary? It's not because he can't, nor is it because he doesn't have the money. Call me crazy (and you will), but I think Wenger chooses not to buy the players.

Wenger knows he's inept. He must know - so must all the fans - that even with world-class quality at his disposal, his outdated and one-dimensional tactics would screw them over. He doesn't have the in-game management acumen nor the motivational skills to bring the best out of any team. Not anymore. 

Note the date.

Imagine if Arsenal had Vidal, Hummels and Reid in the team and were still struggling (mind, it could happen under Wenger). The tirade of the fans would aim directly at Wenger, for it will undoubtedly be his fault that the team aren't living up to their potential. There would be protests and there would be chantings at the Emirates calling for his removal (if we don't have enough of that already). Because, honestly, who else would you blame?

If you think such a case is impossible, think again. Look at this season. Look at the squad objectively and think of the quality it offers. Definitely more than Southampton's, definitely more than Manchester United's and probably equal to Manchester City's, in my humble opinion. Yet we're languishing somewhere fifth in the table.

Money is not the answer to everything. There are anti-Wenger bloggers who have been saying this before the PUMA and Emirates deals struck us gold. Mark Hughes at QPR proved that simply buying players does not solve the problem. There are a lot more aspects - such as playing the player in their best positions, using the best formation, specific tactics against specific opposition, resting and rotating at the right times and a lot more - which makes the percentile difference.

It is for this reason I believe Wenger was right in not buying Cesc Fabregas again. There really would have been no point. The problem wasn't a lack of midfielders, it was a lack of tactical acumen and proper formational structure from Arsene. Wenger played Ozil on the left, Ramsey as an attacking midfielder and left Arteta alone to guard a mishmash defence. These are not problems relating to transfers, they are pertaining to the manager's ability to read and strategise in a game. If we had bought Fabregas and played him in a 4-1-4-1 he would have tanked or gotten injured in a few months time due to him being overplayed in an incorrect position.

I think it's pretty obvious Wenger knows in which areas are his squad lacking. Only a fool would deny a centre back or a defensive midfielder is not of the utmost necessity. I think Wenger himself knows that he can get the required players that can fill the gaps, if he tried.
However, he knows that not buying the necessary players leaves room for excuse. He knows that should Arsenal lose, the fans would bemoan the lack of defensive quality and attribute that as the underlying cause. He knows that he can buy time by letting the fans believe that simply buying one or two players would win us the Premier League.

Because the truth is, Wenger would struggle to win the Bundesliga even if he was in charge of Bayern Munich.

-Santi [Follow me on Twitter @ArsenalBlogz ]